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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 18, 2009 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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unchanged from last year. tech titans ibm and microsoft claim the second and third spots. nbc parent ge coming in at number 4. and cell phone maker nokia rounding out the top five most valuable brands. even the world's top brands showing they're not recessionproof, though. the overall value of the top 100 companies came in at $1.15 trillion, down more than 4% from last year. before we go let's take a look at the market as we close out the week. and we see a 2 1/4% gain on the dow for the week, 2 1/2% gain for the s&p 500. this week alone dow industrials capped off the week way gain of 36 points, about 1/3 of 1%, finishing at 9820. nasdaq picked up six points, 2132. and the s&p 500 tonight at 1068 up three points. have a great weekend. i'll see you on monday. here's fm fms right now. the white house economic adviser larry summers says despite signs of growth the administration won't make the
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mistake of prematurely declaring victory by removing all economic stimulus. ebay ceo john donoho tells cnbc he's confident the $2 billion skype sail will go through even though the internet phone service's founders are taking legal action. and a fresh closing 2009 high for the dow puts the index exactly 50% above its bear market closing low in march. that's cnbc.com "news now." fms fmgs with melissa lee starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." the dow posting its best week since late july. we will break down the hottest trade going into next week. and later google heading toward 500 bucks a share will it make it? the top-rated analyst on the street gives us the winning call. plus the one thing missing from this recovery, jobs. karen finerman finds out where they'll cull from with her exclusive interview with the labor secretary. then we'll trade it. but first let's go down and get the word on the street, break
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down this winning week. guy, we have been in the camp of the debbie downers out there. >> i am the only person in the camp. these guys have been spot on. it's been me that's been in the camp. so go ahead. >> let's take a look at this week. best week since late july. we've had some new leadership emerging. the mother ship making some nice -- >> huh? >> the mother, general electric. >> i've got to clarify. >> procter & gamble also advancing nicely. are you getting more optimistic? come on, debbie, what do you say? >> you can't fight the tape. i've been wrong. the market went higher. am i getting more optimistic? no. i mean, unemployment in this country is 10%. you know, it's probably closer to 17%. jobs aren't coming back anytime soon. the consumer's ratcheting back. you saw those july numbers down $21 billion consumer credit. that's a major number. now, yes, it's fine that people are saving. i think that's great. but guess what, i mean, people are not spending -- they won't spend. jobs aren't coming back anytime soon. the market's discounted all
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its -- but no, i'm not more optimistic. >> i've got all the ammunition debbie needs. the bottom line is you're getting some fundamental fuel for np procter & gamble upgraded an earnings upgrade. jpmorgan was out today saying they -- the stock market is a leading indicator. they say that's foreshadowing earnings going into the third quarter. we're seeing then the other side of this, which is truly allocation trade. that's what's happening. emerging market. >> but if i were to be the debbie downer to the procter & gamble trade that upgrade was interesting because they said procter & gamble is embase the fact they need to start cutting prices because consumers aren't buying products when they're at higher prices. so isn't that admitting that the economy isn't there, that the consumers aren't there paying up for whatever it is? >> procter & gamble, we're really talking about consumer staples, we're not really talking about discretionaries. so i'm not as worried one way or another, quite honestly-b procter & gamble and i don't think it's a dramatic upready anyway. but my point is this is about people expecting earnings to go higher. this is leading indication. and this is allocation. and most notably, though, we've
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said this and i'm going to say it again, we're going into the final couple weeks of the quarter, people are behind on their allocations, these pullbacks we said yesterday are going to be shallow. don't expect you're going to get 15% to jump back in and buy your freeports and -- a lot of these companies -- >> with the end of the quartercourt karen, are you starting to pull the trigger on some of that cash on the sidelines we've been talking about for so long? >> no, in fact i'm starting to take some off. the valuations are getting so stretched and some of the defensive trades i've had on do not work in this kind of environment at all. you'd think on the heels of what p & g is saying walmart would work. it's gone absolutely nowhere. it seems impervious to any up trend in the market. 13 times next year's earnings, i think it's great, but it just does not move. it's -- defense is not where you want to be. >> i've used the technical analogy of 2003 throughout 2009. if you look at 2003 and you look at the options expiration for september, that was kind of where you had a top in the market. so what do i think right here? i'm actually going to jump into
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guy's debbie downer camp. i think right here -- i am defecting from the bull camp. right here through the end of the month here's an opportunity for timmy's small shallow correction to happen in the marketplace. i actually today put on a bunch of bearish positions, and i believe over the next two weeks we are going to get a little bit of a correction. >> i always like to get a trade in that's the first four minutes of the show so i'm already unsuccessful in my attempt. but -- and karen finerman will agree with me on this one. abercrombie & fitch the stock has doubled since march. huge run. june comps awful, july comps awful, august comps awful. at some point that catches up. valuation will catch up at 22 times forward earnings. guess what, this stock made a high of 34.95 on august 14th. it's trading 34 1/4 now. it sets up real easy, stop down on a short position, any close above 35. i think you can get short this one especially if the tape
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reverses. i've been saying it for a while, i'll say it again. valuations don't make sense. it's a great company, great story, they're doing everything right. you can't make people buy things, frankly. their comps prove it. they're running the business better. but the stocks run out of gas. >> agree with you there, absolutely. that one is so stretched. i'm long aeropostale, you can be long american eagle but i cannot understand why they need to have a premium price like this. >> some pessimism on the desk when it comes to certain stocks. yesterday we asked all of you out there whether or not the dow would hit 10,000 bit end of the month, and it was nearly an even split. 53% of you said yes, all systems are a go. 47% said no, a correction is coming any day now. >> any day now. that's a great song. remember the break in the song? >> i was just thinking about that song when i said that. >> light 106.7 for you tri-state area folks out there. >> on to the next trade, gold closing lower for a second day in a row. but still managing to post its fifth consecutive week of gains.
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down at other end of the desk there, joe, you have switched your position also on gold. >> well, i haven't switched but there is a defection once again. i've been a gold long, i've maintained my gold position in the futures market. i've gotten off that train. we are unable to take out the bear stearns high from early 2008 at 1,033.90. the market right now looks like it wants to pull back a little bit. if you get gold below 1,000, you are going to have a shakeout in the market. also take a look at what is going on now in the copper futures market. this is a great tell on the global economy. it is clearly when you talk about copper, it is the thermometer for the global economy and copper right now can't get the three handle back on it now. today again lower again. so that is why i'm very cautious right now about where we sit in the entire marketplace with aum risky assets. ? i would say this about copper. it's struggling at 2.95. i agree with you, the key thing about this range, 2.57 to 95 but it's not breaking on the down side. the earnings for these big
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copper companies, freeport southern cpu, all these guys, their earnings will be upgrade. just keep that in mind when you're looking at the valuations because these stocks aren't valued for 2.75 copper. gold, really quickly it's all been about the dollar and the dollar this week toward the end of the week started to see a little bit of foundation, a little bit of turning around, 7 6 on the dxy. if you believe the dollar's going to rally and a lot of people have asked me how can you play the dxy, which is again this gakt of dollar stocks, it's not playing the dollar-euro, the dollar-yen. . ept replicates the dxy. it's very interesting. >> you and gartman touched ton yesterday when you said the eighth new etf. that's just so crowded. this is about to be on the cover of "business week," this story. and you know, that's the -- absolutely. >> let's come back for one second on the fundamentals of copper because again, this is important for the entire
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economy. if you look right now, inventory, 16 days in a row. the lme measures inventories. we've had 16 consecutive days of inventories rising. it will also show you that china, they are not restocking at the levels that they did in q1 and q2. i'm bullish on copper long-term, i'm bullish on commodities, but i believe what's in front of us right now allows for an opportunity for correction and i think the copper tape is telling you. >> imf announced $13 billion of gold sales. >> $13 billion of gold sales. >> in an orderly manner without disrupting the market. >> check's in the mail. no more gold. let's move on. >> how about the miners? are they overpriced? >> yes. >> gold miners, absolutely. >> 30 times earnings for guys that traded 20 times and a lot of places where you have people like barrick buying back their hedges, i don't think that's a great move, by the way, and i don't think other guys are going to rush in there. the miners scare me here. >> face it, when it's a chase you're going at someone else's speed, not your own, and when
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that happens, that is a great tell that you're going to be wrong. >> so many pockets in these markets these days are a chase. next trade, industrials closing out the week on a high note. ge, caterpillar leading the pack, ge ending higher by 13% for the week, caterpillar ending up more than 10% for the week. these are huge moves. where are we positioned in terms of going into next week? can we continue to hold on to 16? >> let me put an explanation point. i felt it could get through 15. here's what's good about ge and they had their ge investor today. on everybody's tongue is technology, services technology, products technology. if you look at all these infrastructure spends, we've had the allocations to the various vendors but we haven't started to see the spending yet. it's about to happen. this is great for ge. also on the nbc side, jay leno's first night getting a lot of very positive play. the bottom line is nbc has been part of the driver for people at ge. >> and that was behind that sanford upgrade we saw earlier this week. >> honeywell has four core businesses. two of them are doing lousy. it's aught oesz and basically
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real estate. and if you believe the real estate market has bottomed and auto market has has omt bod which i don't really have a view on, you've got to look at honeywell. slow and steady for a while. >> if you look strictly at the technicals, look at the price action in ge and caterpillar, you will think the market that's clearly topped out. ge got up to 17 the 82, i believe, 52-week high, pulled back dramatically. was unable to recover, get back above 17. caterpillar the same type of action today as well. both those stocks, technically the price action looks like it's topped out. >> let's move on to the next trade, oil stagnant on the week but oil stocks breaking out. chevron, conoco all closing the week higher by more than 3%. joe, what did you make of the move here? >> by the way, ge was 17.52 high, not 17.82 high. i'm wrong on that. on oil, tape in oil, first of all, the volume in oil is down. it looks like oil is able to sustain above $70, which if it does so that positions it to move above 80, 85.
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but a lot of speculators are moving away from oil and into natural gas. that's one of the reasons natural gas is rising. the commodity tape right now is very choppy. the grain market is not participating. the sugar market has come off. when you look at the energy market, it's all about natural gas right now, and yet oil still is above 70 bucks. i believe right now in oil there really is no trade. that's the best trade. >> in week if you needed a reason not to be in ung this week gave it to you. ung basically does nothing, but nat gas has been explosive. we talked about it. i still say the best way to play nat gas is some of these names like apache. to me it's broken out. look at the move it's had in a week and a half to two weeks from 85 to 94. that's where you want to be. ung, grim death. >> look at the commodity currencies, the canadian dollar, australian dollar. that's going to be a great read on where we're going. >> karen, you're watching a cs call today. >> yes, on chevron. that is an integrated we talked about. and actually you, we were talking before the show about their natural gas exposure and
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for some of the other big guys how natural gas is going to be a meaningful part. i i think dish don't know if we've seen the bottom bottom, but i think that natural gas will get a lot more focus, and i sort of think it's -- long-term it is going to be part of the energy solution. so i am bullish on natural gas. i totally agree with guy not to play it in the ung. even a name like chesapeake. >> your old friend. >> oh, it hurts you to say that name, doesn't it? >> it really does. >> let's talk about the chart of the day now, bring that in because it's a very interesting one. and this is courtesy of the ambassador. top portion of the screen showing the shanghai composite in 2009 while the bottom shows the dow in 1987 precrash. as you can see, the shanghai is following an eerily similar pattern to the dow of 5e8 7. timmy, break this down. >> if i had a republicmindi for person that sent me this chart today -- they led on markets up, they led on markets down -- it's a good one, isn't it?
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i like that. it's friday. the bottom line is you do have to pay attention to china but the point is people are tracing this back to the formation we saw right before the fall in '87. so if you look at these charts, they're eerily similar. i'd point out, though, that the shanghai obviously is not even dsht locals market, we talked about the shanghai a-shares trade. but the reality is this is something people are watching. china the a shares were down 8% last night. people two weeks ago would have lost their minds over this number. be careful. >> let's move on, talk about the home builders closing the week on a high point. jpmorgan upgrading kb homes and toll brothers. they say the worst is over for the housing sector interestingly though this comes 24 hours after the founder of toll sold 1.58 million shares of his company on september 16th. so i don't know, that seems look a bad sign. >> well, they're not alone, by the way. i mean, insider selling over the last few weeks has outpassed insider buying something like 80-1, which tells you that a lot of people -- and look at
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companies. they're all selling as much stock, but with toll it is particularly disconcerting. if you look at the housing sector, though, i think next week we really have our kind of proof in the pudding data. we have housing starts, we have new home sales. these are the figures. and ultimately the housing price index, which is up 6 of the last 7 months. you've had a lot of people who are looking at the sxwankz looking at the consumer and saying the worst is over, have to be pointing at these numbers. we'll see. >> well, there's also a bill introduced yesterday by harry reid to extend that $8,000 credit. there's lobbying efforts nieb even expand it beyond just first-time home buyers. and that would be a good thing. i sort of think it's a little bit of cash for clunkers kind of phony zims. >> and can the housing market actually find a bottom if you keep pumping in artificial means to prop it up? that's the question as well. let's talk about the story of the sxweek that certainly is the move we've seen in the market, the best week for stocks since late july. what is the direction next and what is the direction for some stocks out there that will be on everybody's radar screen next week? for that we bring in greg
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troccoli, the director of technical research at opalesque. always good to sigh. >> melissa, crew, how are you today? >> let's start along with the nasdaq because it can has been a lead leader for quite some time. >> i'm getting extremely skittish here. i know joe has defected. guy certainly has his worried with this market. i feel the same way, and i'll show you why. the nasdaq went from roughly around 2,300 back at the end of '07 down to around 1,290 this past march. the recent move, 68% here, not that high, but we've come back 62 persian of the 62% of the entire loss. that outpaced the entire s&p. the low this past march was not lower than the correction we had in 2002. the s&p, we did violate that low. we did not in the nasdaq. however, the correction of making up more than 62% of the entire losses in the last six months has me extremely
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skittish. and the other reason is we're well above the 200-day moving average line. i've got to tell you, guys, the next couple weeks we could have a pullback here and it can could be meaningful. >> so you're using the nasdaq as a catalyst for the direction of the market but where exactly in terms of sectors, industries? where do you want to take it? because i don't think you want to go those nasdaq names and be short them. i any you want to look elsewhere. >> joe, if you look at what's driving the beta, i agree with you. there are some things, some names within the nasdaq you that definitely want to keep as part of the portfolio. and i think cramer did a good job the other night of looking at some of those names. however, i think home builders, even though they've had some new highs today, are ahead of theflsz. i definitely think there are some names in technology that are so near the last 5% of their move that it's just way too risky to hold in the portfolio. >> let's talk about one of those names that seem to be a head scratcher these days, and that's starwood hotels. the fundamentals don't seem to bear out the moves we've seen recently in this stock. >> i'm a believer since i'm a
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technician that technicals lead to fundamentals. and i think a really good example of that is in the hotel sector. starwoods went from around 55, 56, all the way down to the recent low of around 9. now, we put a low in in march at 9, and it could not be and still is one of the worst periods for the hotel industry that we've seen in the last two to three decades. conferences are down, bookings, business travel. yet technically the market's put in a low in march. you can argue a lot of sectors were on the cheap and people wanted to buy. however, a move from 9 up to -- toward 34 this week and now you're starting to see jpmorgan jump on and their economists say we're coming out of this cycle, could be great for the hotel sector. but the technicals led the way for the next five months. now i think it's rough when they say an objective of this stock is 39. you're into the last five points of it. you should have been on the train a long time ago and the technicals put you there way ahead of the fundamental niez. >> greg, ten-second achblt rim
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because we're just out of time but that is a stock everybody's watching. >> you make mention of it quite a bit, melissa. i'm worried about it. it's been between 60 and 84. we tested the 84 a little above it a few weeks ago. we're into that resistance again now. if it can't close above 84 in the next two or three days, i wouldn't be holding the stock, i'd ratherhome hold amazon. >> greg troccoli of opalesque. stay tuned. more word on the street coming up next. including where's google headed? we'll bring in a top-ranked internet analyst with his take. stay tuned. this market has investors singing. but can stocks keep taking us higher? we get the pulse from the pits to see if this market can see the good vibes going. and the chairwoman studying the fine print and she pulls no punches with the labor secretary. can this market keep going
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without the zblojobs? when america's post-market show continues.
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be. welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq marketsite. google closing the week higher by 4% now, sitting at 492.
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will this internet behemoth finally break 500 bucks next week? let's bring in mark mahaney of citi joining us from san francisco. mark, always good touk that to you. >> hey, melissa. >> what rur why predictions for goog snl how soon will it hit 500 bucks? >> it's hard to know exactly when it's going to hit it but i'd be very surprised at least in a flat market if this thing weren't higher than 500 at least bit end of the year. we think they do well over 26 bucks in earnings next year, that's in 2010. the street's still at 24 bucks. you put a 20 to 25 multiple on that the low end is 520, the high send above 600. will go above 500. >> the double-click sort of stock exchange for ad space, how much is that expected to add to google's bottom line? >> it probably doesn't. there are three major things to focus on in google, double click, youtube, and mobile. and youtube's bigger in the second half of this year and then mobile kicks in next year. the ad exchange is probably 2010, 2013. >> are we seeing a return of the
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retailers, the car companies, the financial services names, all those names that pulled back? are they come k back? >> i think it's hard to argue they're not pulling back. we've got some major advertiser commitments that have been made for the fourth quarter of this year from two of the biggest advertisers in the world, toyota and procter & gamble that they're not going to spend a significant amount of that online. it's hard to believe. the numbers will come back and i think you'll see it first in search. that's why google will be the biggest beneficiary in cyclical recovery in online advertising. >> yahoo's shake-up couldn't happen at a better time. is this a rising tide for them, does the stock have any life in it or is that dead right now? >> we're sticking with yahoo. last time we talked about the stock was at 15. we've had a real rally in this stock-n yahoo over the last 2, 12 1/2 wee 2 1/2 weeks. it's been the clear large cap underperformer. we think there's valuation on the up side. they're going to see a cyclical recovery not as good as google. but what's good for google has to be good for yahoo. yahoo still goes up from here.
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>> baidu's chairman robin lee was on cnbc a couple days ago talking about mobile access being major growth for baidu. you talked about this with goog google. can you give us an idea what it means for their earnings going forward? we spend so much time talking about smartphones on the show. and i'm curious about your thoughts on baidu. >> it will only mean something for google when it's material, and it's only material for google when 10% of their searches worldwide come off smartphones. we're not there. it's maybe 1% to 2%. we could be there some point in 2010. there or it's 2011. and that's when you're going to see one of those quarters, and maybe at the end of 2010 or the beginning of 2011 where people are going to be sprieds because the growth rates aren't going to slow down. that's going to be the quarter where mobile really quikz into google's finltz in the model but for the next two, three quarters no impact. >> and mark, in your universe, let's say the valuations for google scares you, 500 bucks a share, you want to stay away from that name. in your universe what's your
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next favorite pick for fresh capital today? j i would take yahoo. i think there's a really interesting argument that this is really four, five times 2010 cash flow. that's pretty attractive for a media property that's got a really interesting play off the china market through their investments and their stake in ali ba-ba that should cyclically recover. this is cheaper than a media company with a china option. i like yahoo here, number two stock in the group. >> thanks, mark. m squared. >> very catchy. >> that's going to stick. whit. >> i don't know if whit stuck. zeke stuck. >> and debbie is good, too. whether you like it or not. >> i do like it. >> fresh off ab interview with teamster heavyweight james hoffa, the chairwoman at it again with labor secretary hilda solis. take a listen. >> while stocks have regained their footing to the joy of the floor, there's an elephant in the room with this rally. when are the jobs coming back?
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with the u.s. unemployment rate head add boff 10%, many are wondering, is the obama stimulus package actually doing anything or are we in for a jobless recovery? the secretary of labor, hilda solis, told me in an exclusive interview she believes the stimulus is only getting started. >> unemployment rate near double digits. how are you going to get people back to work? >> you'll see a lot of construction. you'll see a lot of rail projects, transportation. and you'll also see a release of monies -- capital monies going into the development of manufacturing. >> and while many screamed only 100 builds of the stimulus has been spent so far solis is asking for a little patience. >> well, i think we're beginning to see the implementation of the american recovery act that was signed into law in february -- first of all help rescue and then rebuild. the rescue part was a big portion of funds that went in to help those dislocated workers. we're only into six months of the recovery plan and it's a two-year process. we still have a ways to go.
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>> the key driver? the administration is setting more and more green on green jobs. not bad since this sector has a job growth rate 2 1/2 times faster than the economy as a whole in the last ten years. >> green job, renewable energies, solar power, wind, biofuel. now -- we've seen a contraction in our economy, we've lost a lot of manufacturing jobs. is to look at these new afrz to get into. >> and when it comes to unions and the fed ex issue, the secretary is letting it be known where she stafrnds. >> i certainly support the efforts of being able to organize. i know ups has a very good relationship with the teamsters. and somebody from southern california, we had a very large ware ho warehou warehouse operation there with ups. every year we would visit the workers, many of whom lived in my hometown, and see they'd reached the benefits of good salaries. it's a good management and employee relationship. >> while not claiming to have all the answers, the labor
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secretary is confident in where america is headed. >> i know we have to make sure we have the capital and then we have kind of everyone moving along in the pattern that i think will help our economy the most. >> but without the job growth confirming this comeback, share prices coned up right where we started. >> how do you trade this, karen? >> well, you know, we talked about it a little bit earlier. with unemployment high it's hard to see a big retail bounce given what's already happened in these stocks. so names like macy's, i wouldn't get on board here. there's still a lot of debt. the multiple is very, very high. in the end i'd stick with guy's a & f short. >> the defensive plays mentioned at the top of the show not quite work working -- >> not working. i'm absolutely still long walmart but it has not worked. >> but i think the not working because people are getting out of the defensive plays, putting money out of walmarts and trying to put it into beta stocks are going to give them more movement, frankly. walmart can work better if the tape does go down.
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you might want to go back in wmc. >> tonight's question is when will this economy stop losing jobs? a, before the year is out. b, first half of 2010. c, second half of 2010. d, 2011 or beyond. >> e the new millennium. >> e, never. log on to fastmoney.cnbc.com. tell us what you think. time to head to our prop desk. will they say everything is big in texas? does size matter? the cowboys' new stadium is no exception. the new $1 billion stadium set to debut this weekend. 3 million square feet features the largest retractable roof in the world and has a video board that spans just 20 yards. is this monster project the beginning of construction comeback for the whole country? what do you think? >> that's insane. >> 80 yards -- >> it's 80 yards? >> oh, yeah. 20 yard line to the 20 yard line. that's a little ridunculous,
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whatever it is. 60 yards. whatever the hell it is. >> it's big. >> put the statue of liberty in that thing standing up. >> this isn't about construction. this is about ego. if you look at what's going on -- come on, look at even yankee stadium. look at all the stadiums built in the last year and a half, they've been overbuild, overhyped, and undersold az sponsorship. sports is changing as a business. they're throwing it back at them. i think it's going to be a big failure p. and technically and structurally it's bain failure because from a football perspective you can't play a game in there without a football hitting it. >> go giants this weekend, please. >> absolutely, go giants. but it's great insight on what's going into the economy. that statement is still to capacity. with the is psl licenses everybody came, the place is full to capacity. how bad is the economy if you can fill that stadium to capacity? >> what's happening with psl at
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giants stadium? guys on the waiting list for 40 years are giving up their seats because they don't want to pay a country club membership to then go out -- >> give me the bottom line. >> they have fast money on for an 80-yard -- >> i don't think it's a tell on construction in america, first of all, and i think sports has become a place where you're actually seeing computers pull back and stay at home. >> it got me thinking about construction stocks. mcdermott, we've been talking about it since it was 13. it's now 26. the good news is it's been on a tremendous run. the bad news is it's due for a pullback. i think we're do you for a stop, trades down 23 1/2 you'd buy it again. mcdermott is the one you want to be on in the space. >> if i'm playing construction in latin america, ica, which is mexico's housing and construction and engineering leaders, a great place to play. >> okay. and in case you're wondering, well, what else hilda and karen spoke about on their interview, it's all on the web. so check it out. coming up next, a market leader
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emerging today that has options traders screaming dow 10,000. we'll tell if you it is and if you should buy right after this. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. we're first in business worldwide. ♪ i don't know much ♪ but i know i love you ♪ and that may be ♪ all i need ♪ to know (announcer) customers love ge aircraft engines almost as much as we love making them. innovation today for america's tomorrow. over health care reform, aarp has chosen a side-- yours. we're fighting to guarantee that you'll never be denied coverage because of your health or age. to prevent anyone from coming between you and your doctor. and to make sure patients don't take a backseat to insurance companies. because at aarp, we believe your health is worth fighting for.
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square. well, the market and the dow jones industrial average may have found a new market leader today. according to bullish activity in the options pits. scott nations is the president of nations shares and an "options action" contributor. and scott, we are talking about procter & gamble, a name you actually talked to us about last week, didn't you? >> that's right. last week we talked about a bullish calendar spread, but today p & g got great news when citi gave it an upgrade and also hiked the target. p & g has been pretty disappointing this year but the news today was pretty good. they're going to go on a market share jihad, which is normally bad news, but earlier this month they this said they expected good things for the top line, which was news because twe heard so many companies pooh-pooh the top line ane say we're going to do great on the bottom line. p & g is set up to be in really good shape. today we saw a bunch of buyers in the sep 57 1/2 calls.
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they wanted to buy those back. a month ago they might have said if i get called away at 57 1/2 that's graek. today they chads their minds. we also saw buying in october, up side calls, particularly the 60 calls. >> what is your position on p & g? what's your new recommendation? >> the new target out of citigroup is $66 and that makes a lot of sense. just over $70 would get you to a 52-week high and that's probably a pretty good price. i hate being long calls here. it's a implied volatility trade. options are relatively cheap. and let's face it, when the consumer crawls up under the rock and starts to spend a little bit they're not going to go remodel their kitchen, they're going to spend an extra $2 and buy the good shampoo. >> now i know what you'll be doing with your money, scott. you've got a fine heaved hair, by the way. we will see you tonight on "options action." that is tonight 8:30 p.m. eastern time. following a re-air of "fast money" right here on cnbc.
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that is also new. 8:00 p.m. at 8:00 you can watch "fast money" for half an hour -- >> it's an hour show. what do they do? >> they just speed it up. >> it's fast "fast money." ? i'm going to watch that. >> i hope you do. let's get to the stocks making extreme moves this week. time now for "pops and drops." kick it off with a pop, dow chemical up about 13% on the week. >> it becomes a show me stock, above 25 bucks finally but what's ahead of you folks is q3 earnings. finally the market is price in that it will see a profit around 10 cents eps. two consecutive quarterly losses. this trade right here has got to show you the profit. >> pop here for cke restaurants, up 7%, guy. >> good week. they reported an in-line quarter. revenues were light. the bottom line is this. i haven't seen a hardee's since i was 13 years old and every time i turn around i see a mcdonald's. i still like mcd or yum better. >> pop here for anadarko, up 8% on the week. karen. >> a lot of big news for them.
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big find off 9 coast of sierra leone. but also, they do have natural gas exposure and this was the week to be in natural gas. >> got a pop for caterpillar up 10% this week. >> caterpillar getting benefit from the new york manufacturing, the philly fed. a lot of these surveys showing there is some construction return. caterpillar is a great company, a lean company and when the cycle turns it will be more profit annual. >> pop for ikea. the scandinavian do-it-yourself company. he told a group of business school students that he should have bolt ikea furniture for his office instead of spending $1 million on decor as the company reported billions of losses. can you imagine john thain having the fjord -- >> with the screwdriver. >> pop here for amazon.com. >> amazon finally back above 90
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bucks got an upgrade this week three consecutive settlements above 90 but here's what you've got to do with the stock, if the price got back to 84.41. you're a buyer between 84 1/2 and 85. >> great week by amr, up 30% this week. >> they secured some financing but then gave revenue guidance this week, said it would be about -- this is a short covering rally of a magnitude i can't even tell you. if oil continues to go higher, amr will go right back down. >> drop on the week for borg warner down 8%. karen? >> you know, this one has bothered me for a while. i think street estimates are too high. key bank also said the street was hoo high. last quarter they missed. i think they'll miss again. we are short. hasn't worked that well, recently, but over time has been great. >> pop for nokia. >> move from 12 to 16 off the lows. take some profits, it's been a great run. >> a drop for our colleague chuck todd. the nbc political colleague chuck todd got a good scolding
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from health and human services secretary kathleen sebelius after he sneezed incorrectly during a briefing. she then showed todd how to properly sneeze into his elbow and asked the crowd to get the man some hand sanitizer. >> oh, sought elbow stores up all the germs and they just stay there? come on. >> what happened to -- >> you walk around all day with the sleeve -- i don't -- >> coming up next, we'll tell you the hot new way to bet on your favorite sporting event. plus the tech heavyweight poised to hit a new 52-week high next week. is it time to get in or bail out? we've got the trade. um bill--
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why is dick butkus here? i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-- i'm your only employee. we're gonna start using fedex to ship globally-- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football... i just don't understand... i'm sorry dick butkus. (announcer) we understand. you want to grow internationally. fedex express
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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square. time now for a fast flash. when we alert to you a major stock poised ahead of a major milestone. microsoft about two bucks away from a new 52-week high after closing higher by 2% so far this week. what do you think, we're going to hit it? 52-week high in microsoft? >> i defected. >> you defrkted already. >> i defected a while ago. >> let's talk about the bing. >> i love the bing, i love
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microsoft. i defected, which clearly means microsoft's going to 30 bucks. probably next week. >> all right. let's move on. because this is going to be a fun one. >> two bucks -- it's a $100 stock. it's -- >> a 10% move. >> the guys at englewood cliffs, they needed a quick one, they just threw that in? because that's a mail-in job right there. >> let's switch gears. >> they can take guy down at any moment. >> all they do is turn off the mike, turn on the little mike. draw hlt horns on you. it's all over. let's move on. this next segment is going to be a good one. a good one. no sector has been hotter recently than the casino stocks with names like las vegas sands up 700% in the past six months alo alone. an unusual firm is getting in on the comeback. cantor fitzgerald. cantor gaming recently launched a new way for casino gamers to place their bets on sporting events in vegas.
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ceo of cantor gaming joins us from sin city to explain. lee. how does this work and is this making money at this point? because there's got to be a reason why a trading firm like cantor's doing this. >> it actually just launched in march of this year at the m casino. so we have two forms of gambling. we have mobile gaming, which is casino style games on a handheld device, which was introduced and okayed in october of last year and then rolled out at the m casino again in march of this year. and then in-running sports and sports wagering on handheld devices. so it is in the early stages. i can tell you that the revenue that's generated on it has been very, very encouraging as of late. >> are there barriers to entry? because it seems like a technology-driven thing so maybe someone else can spend the money on the technology and enter the space and be a competitor. >> well, there's regulatory challenges as well as capital challenges. so we have -- we have invested millions of dollars in the technology. this has all been placed upon
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the fact that cantor has spent hundreds of millions of dollars of its trading technology in the financial services world. so we've been able to take that investment and then scale it out to the fact that it is now consumer products. so this is -- there are regulatory hurdles. you have to be licensed. you have to go through all sorts of procedures. it does take a while for people to get involved. >> hey, lee, it's joe. i love the in-game running trading action. it's something i did years back when i was on the nymex exchange during the games. you'd be out -- i'm sure you know this. you'd be able to trade during the game. do you have the liquidity or am i going to be out there trading by myself if i need to cover something? are there enough players providing liquidity while the game's going on? >> i can tell you this, that it's -- i'm glad you point td out today because that's exactly why we made this investment here. the fact is when the markets open in the financial world that's when people trade. you know, when there's a kickoff in a sports bet, then people
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actually have nothing to do but watch the game. so what we've done is create a platform for people to be able to trade sports. and that's what this is all about. we've had significant liquidity in the product already. it is very, very popular. it sits on devices such as this. i don't know if you can see this. but it's a very small device that's in the palm of your hand. and you can make your wagers during the game. it has been well received. it opens -- like i say, it's open at the m casino right now, and it will be opening this weekend at the venetian and the pa latso. >> so sunday night i could be sitting on my couch and beth on the game on my iphone? >> as long as your couch is in the casino you can bet on it. >> last time joe checked it was not. lea amaitis of cantor gaming. we talked about this because you move into the sxas you're relying on the casinogoers to be there to place those bets. so what do you think of these casino stocks? >> dr. j's been on it for a while. we're going to move in las vegas sands. but then go back to september
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16th. look at mgm and lvs. they both traded about 135 million shares. huge volume. shorts got squeezed out. they made basically the highs we've seen for the last year or so and then reversed and went lower. i think that was basically the high for a while. i'm saying get out. >> take a look at the bottom of your screen, we're flashing this, potash cutting its 2009 earnings guidance. i don't know if there's sort of volume in the after-hours action on potash. this is a name you'll want to follow come monday when the markets open and we do see the stock trading lower in the after-hours. again, reducing its 2009 guidance. would anybody buy potash -- >> we've been talking, dennis gartman, pete, we've all been talking about potash inventories. potash inventories are still uncomfortably high. and if you look at the gain market, the fundamentals in the grain market, it just isn't there for potash right now. >> i don't think this is a big surprise. we've heard it from k & s, mosaic other, guys that the demand is not there. if they're not cutting their contract prices and there's big negotiations going on with the chinese right now, these guys -- this isn't a surprise. they've guided here. i don't think the market's going
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to take it down too hard. i see it trading down here. i would own potash here. i think you might get it lower, but this is a great -- >> agrium weakness on the back of this news? >>er, you're buying the whole space. mosaic is in play, agrium in play. >> just aw great example, friday night news never a good thing for your stock. never, never. >> monday. watch it monday. pot. coming up next speaking of casino stocks we'll go one trader on a vegas bet gone wrong and tell you what your next move should be. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. before i started this job, i admit, i had some doubts. probably a lot like you. but i like what i found. i think you will too. car for car, when compared to the competition, we win. simple as that. i just know if you get into one of our cars, you're gonna like what you see. so we're putting our money where our mouth is. buy a new chevy, buick, gmc or cadillac and if you are not 100% happy,
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return it. we'll take it back. that's our new 60-day satisfaction guarantee. and as always you'll get our 100,000-mile, 5-year powertrain warranty on every vehicle. that's how strongly we feel about our cars. and how committed we are to you. so put us to the test-- put us up against anyone and may the best car win.
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as the one-year anniversary of lehman's collapse had some investors reminiscing, our traders kept their head in the game trying to keep you quicker than the ticker. >> take a look at vm ware and red hat. goldman sachs put a great report out on them today talk about software, virtualization. i agree with owning both those names. i think they both go higher substantially from here. >> the liquidator betting on this under the trade tech name after completing its acquisition of competitor spring sword vm ware rallied 8%. >> i like pride. it's in the deep water drilling space. they are selling off their natural gas component. got stronger during the day. >> the chairwoman feeling boastful after this. after being initiated to an outperform by be one but two
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analysts the stock soared 26%. >> $5 billion by the end of the year. 700 million left on that repurchase plan. the stock is cheap on valuation. i think it can continue to go higher from here. >> the negotiator bidding on this internet retailer after receiving multiple analyst upgrades. ebay jumping 8%. >> seeing rotation within the retail space. coal upgrade. oil prices are going up. they're hoping coal prices are going up. >> the ambassador digging deep for this trade after raising his outlook for iron ore and coal, cliffs stocks rose 2%. two words to sum it up, fast money. >> let's do the fast money where we grill our traders. you told us to cash out a little too early on las vegas sands, it was upgraded to a buy and the stock did have a nice run-up, 30%. >> the stock's a casino. there's nothing fundamentally good going on there. i got out. >> on september 9th the
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negotiator telling you to get into texas instruments, but investors didn't remain optimistic for the long run. the stock did drop 7%. >> had a nice day today, close the 24.06. i still like it, positive news. >> back on september 8th the liquidator told you to jump ship on allegheny a little too early. the momentum continued following its agreement with rolls-royce the stock did climb another 12%. joe. >> the stock was 44 bucks. august 19th the stock was 25 bucks. if you didn't get out when i told to you then, get out now. >> and we're giving karen a pass this week. lucky you, karen. >> lucky me. walmart. >> wait till next week. don't go anywhere. final trade right after this. odd
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all right. quick programming note. do not miss a special suze orman tomorrow night as she breaks down your road to retirement no matter what your age. that's tomorrow night 8:00 p.m. right here on cnbc with our friend suze orman. me too. final trade here, tim? >> sell alcoa, great run time to get out. >> long suze short anf. >> time to sell some more rig. >> bought some caterpillar puts today. get short caterpillar. >> don't miss the reear at 8:00 p.m. followed by "options action" at 8:30. have a great night. >> announcer: monday, they're the ones to watch. a new emerging market for us with huge opportunity. the chairwoman shows you how to play it. and a chip breakout? top analysts on what's tops in tech. "fast money," 5:00 eastern monday on cnbc. first in business worldwide. an eleven sixteenths wrench over here? psps
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